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Young people’s perceptions of the future
(January 2005)

Arthur Clarke, the renowned author, noted “this is the first generation that thought much about the future, which is a bit ironic, since they may not have one”. Our society has changed a lot in the decades since he made that observation. It is not clear what percentage of young people (high school, college age) in the United States, Europe, or other areas of the world give any serious thought to the future of this world or even to their own futures beyond the next few years or a decade hence. The views of young people around the world, whether about the present or future, are important because their perceptions will shape our future.

Today, the news is, by and large, persistently depressing day in, day out, week in, week out, month in, month out, year in, year out, and young people are constantly bombarded by bad news about: terrorism; the threats of use of dirty or nuclear bombs or other weapons of mass destruction; global warming; wars that increasingly harm civilians often with venomous individual and group cruelties that are broadcast graphically in the media; environmental destruction, etc. The ability to solve our major problems by the dint of our own efforts is called meliorism. Suppose, in the coming years, these unpleasant events leave young people overwhelmed with a gut feeling of bleak depression. Suppose looking at the major problems facing our society, they grow to believe we are no longer a meliorist society - that one or more of our major problems is unsolvable. What would the consequences be? I suspect that the adverse effects would include the following:

1. An increase in hedonism, that is a focus on immediate pleasure regardless of the consequences. That has a lot of ramifications, including a lot more blatant and pervasive obsessive sexuality, an increased use and abuse of alcohol, risk taking behaviors in automobiles, and a markedly worsened drug scene. The mind-altering, currently illicit, drugs are almost always touted as giving ineffable pleasure and increasing sexual capacities. A perception of non-meliorism in a society already devoted to hedonism is a guarantee of a massive increase in use of mind-altering drugs, regardless of potential consequences. After all, if there is no tomorrow, you may as well enjoy the pleasures of today, drugs included.

2. A withdrawal by many young people from politics and other activities that would benefit the society. Why get involved in politics, government service, non-governmental organizations if they believe this is a fey society without a future.

3. An increased focus on greed, money, and wealth. Unfortunately, these are already major values of American society. The situation would get worse with an ever greater egocentric focus on acquiring the wealth (and power) to indulge one’s hedonism without restrictions.

The picture I have portrayed is not nice. It need not come to pass, but it may. Just look at the escalating virulent antipathies around the world based on religion, ethnicity, dwindling resources, and economic disparities that could create the scenario I depicted. And, there is another disturbing issue that everyone ought to think about very carefully. The United States is unrivaled in our military weapons and capacity. But, our military and their supporting politicians are not satisfied. They are afraid that, in future decades, some nation might challenge us with sophisticated weapons. So, we are developing a whole new array of incredible weapons with astonishing computer capabilities: bombers; fighters; attack helicopters; missiles that talk to each other; unmanned reconnaissance and attack planes, bunker busting bombs, including nuclear bombs, and also massively destructive lasers, electromagnetic pulse weapons; and we are moving to the militarization of space with terrifying weapons. Nobody will be able to challenge us in battle. In time of conflict, what will be left to our adversaries? One way to partially neutralize our fire power is to make us fight in cities, street by street, as is happening in Iraq. Another way is to attack us with a variety of terrorist weapons unleashed on civilians here and overseas, including bombs, dirty bombs, nuclear devices, biologic weapons, and, when available, ferocious nanotechnology weapons. Paradoxically, our military strength could inflict ever greater damage on ourselves. Terrorism, now still relatively infrequent, will become the norm for our adversaries who do not have our firepower - and it will be ever more sophisticated and lethal.

It is a depressing scenario. Unfortunately, it is a realistic one and can, in my judgement, only be avoided by less focus on better ways to kill and more focus on a systems approach and constructive actions that will create a climate less conducive to terrorism and terrorist acts.

Coping with major problems facing the society requires commitment, money, and often sacrifice. That tends not to be popular. Calls for action are often met with disdain, ideologic counterattacks, denial of solid evidence, or determined indifference.

The current conviction that we can solve our problems by the dint of our own efforts may not last - and loss of the perception of meliorism by young people could be as catastrophic for the future of our world society as severe global warming or a nuclear exchange.

We had better do ongoing and regular polling to assess the perceptions of high school and college age students (as well as post college age students) in regard to their future, the future of their countries and the world. And, we had better pay attention to the results of the questionnaires and the trends.

Our education system should train young people to think like futurists, drawing up alternative scenarios in regard to major issues for the coming years, decades, even centuries, and then discussing how we could move towards the most attractive of the scenarios. Thinking about and planning for the future should imbue young people with at least a modicum of confidence that there will be a future.

Above all, we have to do a better job in attempting to solve or at least ameliorate our major problems, and we have to get young people involved in those efforts. We have to, for example, stop sweeping the threat of global warming under the proverbial rug. We have to do better with nuclear weapons, world wide poverty, under nutrition, the prevention of wars, etc, etc.

If we do not, one of two things may well happen:

- Even though we are still meliorist, young people will become convinced, incorrectly, that one or more of our major problems is, indeed, unsolvable, and those beliefs, together with resulting behaviors, will have huge adverse societal consequences.

- We really will have major problems we cannot solve and will be non-meliorist in which case, we will not have a world or a future.

Fortunately, we still have viable choices - but, procrastination must not be allowed to be an option.