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CLICK HERE to review Part 1 on the background and premises underlying the survey

The national telephone survey on respondents' perceptions about the future was conducted in April 2005 by McLaughlin & Associates. Telephone numbers were called until there were 500 respondents who completed the questionnaire in each of four age categories - 18 to 24 years; 25 to 44 years; 45 to 64 years; and 65 years and older.

The questionnaire was simple. There were seven demographic questions (age, gender, ethnicity, education, area of residence, marital status, income) and nine perception questions

The results were to us stunning:

1. The overwhelming majority of respondents were optimistic about their own futures. Among 18 to 44 year olds, 82 percent were personally optimistic; optimism fell among those 65 and older, but, even here, 64 percent of the respondents were personally optimistic.

2. There was a dramatic drop in optimism in regard to the future of the world. In no age group did the majority feel optimistic; optimism rates ranged in the four age groups from 39 to 46 percent. About the same percent were pessimistic.

3. Seventy-three percent thought there would be a biologic warfare event in the next 20 years.

4. Almost 60 percent thought there would be a nuclear warfare event in the next 20 years.

5. Surprisingly, only 36 percent thought global warming would be a serious problem in the next 20 years.

6. In the four age groups, 55 to 62 percent said we could solve or ameliorate only   some or none of the major problems facing the society (such as the threat of nuclear or biologic war, climate change, terrorism, etc).

7. Three-quarters of those who felt biologic or nuclear warfare was likely, or that global warming would be severe or that we could not solve most of the major problems facing our society still felt optimistic about their own futures.

8. Those who indicated religion was very important to them were more optimistic about both their own and the world's futures

Our interpretation of these startling results is as follows:

- there is an obvious disconnect between personal optimism about the future and pretty grim perceptions about the future of the world

- the majority in each age group have already lost confidence in the future of the society; that conclusion is unavoidable given their belief that we cannot solve or ameliorate most of the major problems facing the global society

- although a surprisingly small percentage felt global warming would be severe in the next 20 years, that could reflect the way the question was asked. In future surveys, we will ask whether respondents think global warming will be severe in the decades (or centuries) after 20 years from now

- personal optimism is, in essence, the last barricade. It could be breached by any untoward event, such as multiple terrorist attacks on civilians around the world or even a single event on American soil - or by a variety of other events such as dangerous environmental changes or economic depression. A lot of unpleasant events could result in a dramatic plunge in personal optimism.  If that happens, we could see major individual behavioral and societal changes that could have highly undesirable individual and societal effects. These plus potential remedies will be discussed in the last of the three segments next month.

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