In Part 1 of this three-part series, the background and premises for the survey about perceptions about the future were outlined ( CLICK HERE to review background).

In Part 2, the results of the survey were outlined, showing that there is an extraordinary disconnect. Respondents were very optimistic about their own individual futures, but they were much less optimistic and much more pessimistic about the future of the world. The clear majority believe nuclear and/or biologic warfare are likely in the next 20 years and that we cannot solve or minimize the major problems facing the global society (CLICK HERE for results of the survey).

Thus, the survey indicates that people ages 18 to 65 plus years are well on their way to losing faith in the future as evidenced by their belief in the likelihood of nuclear and/or biologic war and their lack of confidence that we can solve or ameliorate most of the major problems that our world society faces. (The ability to solve our problems by the dint of our own efforts is called meliorism). All that is left as a buffer against loss of faith in the future is personal optimism. That could be shattered in the next year or decade if terrorism increases, or if there are terrorist attacks on American soil, or if someone explodes a crude “dirty bomb”, or if there is a crude attempt at biologic warfare. Other events could also batter personal confidence, such as, for example, evidence that global warming is accelerating with what appears to be unstoppable and catastrophic consequences. Or there could be terrible world wide epidemics such as bird flu with tens of millions of deaths, including millions of Americans. A lot of things could happen that could sunder the barricade of personal optimism and result in mass loss of confidence in the future, leading to a perception that, in essence, young people in America and around the world have no future.

That grim scenario could have very serious behavioral consequences.

- A marked increase in pleasure-focused behaviors.

We are already a sensate, hedonistic society, meaning we focus on pleasure, particularly pleasures that appeal to our senses. There is nothing wrong with that, but if those behaviors become excessive or monolithic, they can become so self-absorbing that important societal needs are subordinated and ignored. Eventually the society will fail to thrive or prepare for the future; and it becomes less able to compete with other societies (at present, the “other” society of particular interest is China, but, in future decades, there will be other countries vying for dominance).

- Wherever hedonism becomes the dominant motif of a society, drug abuse increases. That would almost certainly occur if young people lose faith in the future. After all if, in essence, there is no tomorrow, why not concentrate on the pleasures of today, including drug use, even if the drug use entails substantial risks to physical or mental health. That may already be happening.

- For the same reasons, alcohol use is likely to increase, including a rise in alcoholism with all its consequences for individuals and the society. That, too, may already be occurring.

- Along with risk taking involved with drug and alcohol abuse, other risk-taking behaviors would almost certainly increase, including risky sexual activities, and risk taking during automobile driving or motorcycle riding.

- A loss of faith in the future would be accompanied by an increase in frequency of individual anxiety and depression. Well-documented responses to these psychological (and emotional) occurrences include not only excessive drug and alcohol use, but also overeating and increased daily cigarette use, both of which can result in serious health consequences. Whether the current progressively worse overweight and obesity epidemic in the United States is related, at least in part, to increased anxiety and depression (and concern about the future) is yet to be determined.

- The self-absorbing hedonism would result in further withdrawal from activities designed to improve the society and address the major problems facing us at local, state, national, and international levels. Currently, we have far too little commitment to improving the society and further erosion would set up a dangerous cycle of reduced involvement, creating more serious problems that further threaten our meliorism resulting in additional loss of faith in the future with consequent increased drug use and subsequent further withdrawal from commitment to the society, etc, etc, etc.

Nuclear warfare, or its equivalent, is not the only way to destroy our global society. Loss of faith in the future, especially by young members of the society, could have the same effect for the reasons noted above. We should take this survey very seriously. If nothing is done, loss of confidence in the future may be right around the corner. What can we do to avoid this loss of faith in the future and the potential consequences outlined above? We can do plenty:

- Above all, we must have the political will and wisdom (in equal amounts) to approach constructively the BIG problems facing the global society (such as global warming, grinding poverty, water scarcity, and the roots of terrorism). If we remain indifferent, incompetent, and unimaginative, then bad events and loss of confidence in the future is inevitable. If that happens, then the only question is to what extent the unpleasant consequences outlined above will occur.

- Our educational system, from junior high school through graduate schools, should teach young people how to approach complex problems with a broad, holistic, systems approach. This allows them to consider a lot more variables and their interrelationships. In turn, this provides an opportunity to discover many more leverage points where the system can be beneficially changed. This avoids the simplistic and often counter-productive approach currently the modus operandi of our politicians at all levels of government. Such educational change is the only way to prepare the future leaders of our society to effectively tackle the major problems that must be solved or at least significantly mitigated if the American and global societies are to thrive.

This may sound glib, but it is not (see our Essay on Societally-Connected Thinking). We need to change the way we think about major problems and we need to change the way we teach our children to think or, to put it most starkly, risk the future of the society.

- We must, through our education system, instil in young people a long-term commitment to participate in solving or mitigating major problems whether at local, state, national, or international levels. At present, we are doing a terrible job of instilling such commitment.

- In addition to instilling in young people a systems approach to complex problems, we need to teach them to think like futurists, drawing up alternative scenarios for specific issues for the coming decades or even centuries, and then figuring how to achieve the most attractive of the scenarios. Planning for the future is one way to develop a modicum of confidence there will be a future and get young people committed on a long-term basis to helping solve or ameliorate major issues facing the society at various levels (local to international).

Finally, of course, we need additional surveys of people’s perceptions of the future, done every year or every two years, to monitor trends and, based on the results, hopefully to take some constructive actions. After all, what is at stake is the future of our children and grandchildren, and their children – and our society.

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