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A national survey on perceptions about the future
(August 2005)

This month's editor's view starts a three-part series relating to a just-completed survey of people's perceptions about the future. This month will cover the background and hypothesis. In September, I will summarize the survey itself (the results are fascinating) and, in October, the series will finish with an analysis of the implications.

Background

As a futurist, I have always been worried about what would happen to our society (and the world society) if young people (in the 18 to 40 year range) lose faith in the future. In early 2005, I was asked to participate in a conference to be held near Washington DC on the alleged determination of the United States to dominate, indeed to control, space with military satellites and with both defensive and offensive weapons. My topic was to be "Societal Consequences of Weaponization of Space"; it was to be the concluding presentation of the two-day conference that was to include speakers favoring weaponization, those opposed, and representatives of other countries that would be impacted, including Russia and China.

I decided to create a systems diagram about weaponization of space and include every variable, every factor, and every consequence I could think of. One of the consequences would obviously be the creation of antagonisms and confrontations with other nations. If we added domination and control of space to our military might on the ground and in the oceans, we would achieve a major goal of our military, namely full spectrum dominance. Ostensibly, we would control everything. If we did that, how would adversaries respond? Larger powers, such as Russia and China, would certainly increase their ballistic weapons capabilities.

Others could react in several ways:

- Develop nuclear weapons so they would have a credible threat if there was a possibility of an attack by the United States or one of our allies. That is essentially what North Korea says it is doing now and that nuclear threat, at present, appears to have stymied the United States.

- Force us to fight in the streets (the Iraq model). Our vast strength is thereby somewhat neutralized and an enemy can inflict enough casualties to make many Americans wish we had never gotten involved.

- Use terrorism. That is the potential reaction of greatest interest to me because of its impact on public perceptions. If we are so dominant that we cannot be challenged militarily or if a nation or, more likely, specific groups are enraged with the American hegemony, what are the most likely actions? Surely acts of terrorism would top the list.

The derivative question is whether repeated acts of terrorism on American soil or against Americans traveling or stationed in other countries could have a major impact on the perceptions of people, especially young people, about their future and the world's future. It is not only the threat of the kinds of terrorist acts the world has already experienced, but also the threat of nuclear bomb attacks or biologic weapon attacks. Additionally, there are other major threats - the effects of severe global warming, uncontrollable infection epidemics, wars over water scarcity, potentially horrific nanotechnologic weapons. People of all ages might then come to believe we are incapable of solving the major problems facing our society.

The ability to solve the problems facing us by the dint of our own efforts is called meliorism. If people, especially younger adults and teenagers, were to believe we are no longer meliorist and, as a result, lose faith in the future, what would be the consequences?

Obviously, the following is pure speculation, but I believe a variety of behavioral changes would be likely to occur.

- An ever greater focus on hedonism (the pleasure principle). We are already a hedonistic society. There is nothing wrong with that, but an excessive or monolithic focus on hedonism, on the pleasures of today, can cripple a society. If people come to believe we cannot solve the major problems facing our society and that there is no future for them or their children, if they believe, in essence, that there is no tomorrow, then why not focus solely on the pleasures of today.

- A marked increase in alcohol and mild-altering drug use. Here again, if there is no future, why not use drugs that can create pleasure, regardless of the potential adverse consequences.

- A marked increase in a variety of risk-taking behaviors, including: more tobacco use; risky sexual behaviors; risk taking during driving automobiles or during motorcycle driving.

- An increased prevalence of depression. That would almost certainly occur.

- As a result of depression or just as part of hedonism, overeating and increased occurrence of obesity with all its complications.

- Concomitant increasing withdrawal from involvements in trying to improve te society at local, state, national, or international levels. That would be catastrophic for the functioning of the society.

In essence, people would say, for example, "why worry about global warming so long as I have my pool and air conditioning".

So, I started with a talk to a conference on weaponization of space and military full spectrum dominance and selected a few potential negative consequences, one being more frequent terrorist attacks. That, in turn, caused me to consider the broader area of whether increased terrorism, as well as other major societal problems, if not solved or ameliorated, could lead to a conviction that the future was bleak with accompanying undesirable behavioral changes.

All these concerns and speculations convinced me that what was needed before the conference actually took place was a national survey of the perceptions of various age groups of their own and the world's future. There was no survey that had been carried out that I could use to provide the information I needed. We had to do one ourselves.

We were able to find the needed funds and contracted with a very good polling group, to conduct the national survey, dividing respondents into four age groups: 18 to 24; 25 to 44; 45 to 64; and 65 and older.

The questionnaire for this telephone survey was brief.  There were seven demographic questions - age, gender, ethnicity, geographic location, educational achievement, income, and marital status. The eight perception questions related to: optimism or pessimism about one's personal future and about the future of the world; changes in optimism or pessimism over the last five years; beliefs about the likelihood of nuclear or biologic attack in the next twenty years; the likelihood of severe global warming; and our ability to solve or ameliorate the major problems facing our society. We also asked how important religion was in their lives.

The results amazed us. I will detail them next month in the second installment of this series.