New national survey on peoples’ perceptions about the future – a warning we cannot afford to ignore
by Donald B. Louria, MD

In 2005, we conducted a national survey on perceptions of people ages 18 and older about the future.  The results (see Archives under “Futures Issues”) were stunning.  In each of the four age groups (18 to 24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, over age 65), there was great optimism about their own futures; this was particularly seen in the 18 to 44 year age categories where more than 80 percent were somewhat to very optimistic.  In sharp contrast, there was, in every age group, a bleak view of the future of the world and a belief by the majority of every age group that a nuclear attack on civilians or biologic warfare attack would occur in the next 20 years (overall, nuclear attack likely 59 percent, biologic war 73 percent).  Only 37 percent believed we could solve or minimize most or all the major problems facing the global society.

We concluded that the American public was well on its way to losing confidence in the future and the only barricade against total loss of confidence was the high degree of personal optimism.

We have just completed a second, somewhat expanded, national survey.  New questions included perceptions about the United States, the likelihood that a nuclear or biologic attack would be on American soil, and the likelihood global warming will be a major problem at some time in the future.

The overall results can be summarized as follows:

            Huge and sustained personal optimism
            Bleak view of future of the United States
            Bleak view of the future of the world
            High expectation of nuclear or biologic attack
            Significant percentage believe the attacks will occur on American soil
            Increased percentage believe global warming will become a major problem

The overwhelming majority continue to believe we cannot solve the major problems facing our global society

More detailed results with a comparison of the 2005 and 2007 surveys are summarized in the accompanying table.

As in the first study done two years ago, the new survey finds that Americans, especially young adults, are overwhelmingly optimistic about their own futures.  Among those ages 18 to 44 years, 83 percent said they were somewhat or very optimistic; the percentage fell to 68 percent among those over age 65.  During the last five years, the majority in every age category reported increasing optimism.

The results were very different when respondents were asked about the future of the United States.  There was much less optimism in every age group about their country compared to personal optimism about their own futures; only 44 percent were somewhat or very optimistic.  For the 18 to 44 year age groups, this amounted to about a 40 point difference, with much less optimism regarding the future of the country compared to their own personal optimism.  In each age group, this was accompanied by a concomitant rise in frank pessimism to above 40 percent. In contrast to the findings with personal optimism, over the last five years, a plurality (42 percent) reported decreased optimism about the future of the United States, and only 34 percent indicated increased optimism.  The bleak view of the future of America was unexpected and startling; it is also a matter of great concern.  It was particularly noted among White respondents.  Those who said religion was a very important part of their lives tended to be more optimistic about the future of America (49 percent); on the other hand, those for whom religion was unimportant were the least optimistic (29 percent) and the most pessimistic (61 percent).

There was a similar lack of optimism about the future of the world in every age group studied.  This was also found in the survey two years ago (the question about the future of America was included only in the current survey).

The percentage expecting a nuclear or biologic warfare event in the next twenty years increased somewhat over the two-year period; 59 percent in 2005 and 65 percent in 2007 expect a nuclear attack in the next 20 years.  Similarly, in 2005, 73 percent and, in 2007, 76 percent felt that a biologic warfare event was likely in the next 20 years.  One in four (nuclear) and more than one of three (biologic) think the attack will be on American soil.  Women tended to be somewhat more concerned than men about both the likelihood of nuclear and biologic warfare, and were more likely to feel the attack will be on American soil.

Over 80 percent feel global warming will be a problem of some degree.  There was a substantial increase in the percentage who believe it will be a major problem in the next twenty years, rising from 36 percent two years ago to 48 percent now.  If those who believe global warming will be a major problem after twenty years from now are included, then almost 60 percent now believe that global warming will present a major problem in the foreseeable future, more than 80 percent of whom believe the problem will arise in the next twenty years.  Black and Hispanic respondents showed the most concern (70 percent each).  Women showed more concern than men (64 versus 55 percent).

When asked whether we can solve all or most of the major problems facing the global society (such as repeated terrorist attacks, the threat of nuclear or biologic warfare, environmental destruction), the pessimism remained identical to two years ago; overall, only 37.4 percent thought we could solve or minimize the major problems facing us.  This lack of confidence in our problem-solving ability was found in each of the age groups studied.  For us, this was a crucial question.  They are again telling us they do not believe we are a meliorist society, that is one capable of solving its critical problems by the dint of its own efforts.  That means they are well on the way to losing confidence in the future.

There was again a disconnect between huge personal optimism and pessimism in regard to the country, the world, future events, and the ability to solve major problems.  We hypothesize that loss of faith in the future could lead to a variety of undesirable behavioral consequences including: an excessive focus on experiencing immediate personal pleasure (hedonism); increased alcohol and mind-altering drug use; more risk-taking behavior during sexual activities, when driving an automobile or riding a motorcycle; a marked increase in anxiety and depression with, in some, a well-known reaction, namely overeating which will increase the severity of our obesity epidemic; and withdrawal from commitment to solve or ameliorate important problems at local, state, national, or international levels on the grounds that, if there is no future, you may as well concentrate monolithically on the pleasures of today.

We are not yet at the tipping point; the personal optimism is still acting as a barricade, but a lot of things could erode that optimism, including the consequences of global warming, more terrorism, or even a serious economic turndown.

The lack of confidence in the future of America is ominous.  If we hope to avoid the unpleasant and society-endangering consequences of such a loss of faith in the future, the most important action would be for our leaders and politicians to persuade the public, especially young adults, that we are capable of attending to and solving the major problems facing us (global warming, terrorism, the potential for nuclear or biologic war, etc).  That would require a huge change in the behavior patterns of leaders and politicians in the United States and in other nations.  For the United States, that leadership must come from the Congress, the President, and the Executive Branch of Government.  At present, there is a lot of posturing and rhetoric, but little evidence our leaders and politicians are thinking carefully about the major problems or taking the actions that will persuade people they are moving energetically and potentially effectively to deal with the critical issues facing the American and the global societies.  This is reflected in a recent poll showing that less than 30 percent of Americans have confidence in the President or the Congress.

Their inaction can be disastrous.  At present, all the major problems are solvable, or at least can be minimized, but, if unattended or approached ineffectively and allowed to fester, one or more will indeed become unsolvable – and that will trigger deep pessimism that will have terrible effects on individual and societal function.

Our surveys should serve as a warning; and everybody should pay careful attention.  Inaction, politics as usual, avoiding or postponing tackling the critical issues, ignoring what people are telling us in these surveys – all that is a recipe for a societal catastrophe.